Abstract

Background The incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) increases rapidly with age. In the UK, adults aged 65 years are eligible for the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) as part of the national immunisation programme, and a 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) was recently licensed for adults. Residents of care homes for older adults have a higher risk of IPD and death than the general population. We estimated the potential effect of an additional dose of PPV23 or PCV20 for new residents entering older adult care homes. Methods In this observational surveillance study, we used national IPD surveillance and care home resident data from England. Care homes for older adults were defined as residential care and nursing homes registered with the Care Quality Commission for adults aged 65 years and older. IPD in adults aged 65 years and older in England was assessed in the 2022–23 epidemiological year (July 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023) by sex and 5-year age bands using data obtained from UK Health Security Agency national IPD surveillance. We calculated the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) with PPV23 or PCV20 in the population of new care home residents to prevent one vaccine-type IPD case and one death compared with adults aged 65 years who were vaccinated as part of the national immunisation programme in England. Findings In 2022–23, there were 2574 IPD cases among 10 629 867 people aged 65 years and older in England. Of these, 603 109 were aged 65 years. Of the 2574 cases, 69·4% (1787 of 2574) were due to PPV23 serotypes and 60·8% (1566 of 2574) were due to PCV20 serotypes. Under the assumption of 36% vaccine effectiveness against PPV23-type IPD and 18% vaccine effectiveness against death, PPV23, when offered to all 603 109 adults aged 65 years in the general population, could prevent 163 (36%) of 452 cases (NNV 3700) and 31 (47%) of 66 PPV23-type IPD associated deaths over 5 years (NNV 19 455). However, vaccinating 121 587 new care home residents with PPV23 could prevent 177 (36%) of 492 lifetime cases (NNV 687) and 111 (48%) of 233 deaths (NNV 1095). In all adults aged 65 years in the general population, PCV20 could prevent 303 (75%) of 404 cases (NNV 1990) and 43 (80%) of 54 PCV20-type IPD deaths (NNV 14 026), assuming 75% vaccine effectiveness against PCV20-type IPD and 18% against death. However, vaccinating 121 587 new care home residents with PCV20 could prevent 317 (75%) of 422 cases (NNV 384) and 157 (80%) of 197 deaths (NNV 774). Interpretation Pneumococcal vaccination for new care home residents could prevent substantially more cases and deaths per dose and would require only 20% more doses than the current national PPV23 programme for adults aged 65 years. PCV20 is likely to have a greater impact against IPD and death than PPV23. Funding None.