Abstract

Background Paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programmes in England using seven-valent PCV (PCV7) in 2006 and 13-valent PCV (PCV13) in 2010 have reduced vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease, but the overall effect has been reduced by an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease due to non-vaccine serotypes and serotype 3. We developed pneumococcal transmission models to investigate the potential effect on invasive pneumococcal disease of higher valency PCVs covering an additional two (ie, 15-valent PCV [PCV15]) or seven serotypes (ie, 20-valent PCV [PCV20]) in England. Methods We conducted a modelling study using realistic, age-structured, and compartmental deterministic models fitted to carriage data from before the introduction of PCVs and invasive pneumococcal disease data from before and after the introduction of PCV7 and PCV13 in England from the UK Heath Security Agency invasive pneumococcal disease surveillance system. We estimated key parameters, including PCV7 and PCV13 efficacy against vaccine-type carriage and invasiveness of PCV7 serotypes; the additional serotypes in PCV13, PCV15 and PCV20; and non-vaccine serotypes. We simulated the effect of transitioning from PCV13 to PCV15 or PCV20 in infants under the current 1 + 1 vaccination schedule and investigated the effect of reduced carriage protection against PCV13 serotypes due to attenuation of immunogenicity in higher valency vaccines. Findings Our results suggest that PCV15 might increase overall invasive pneumococcal disease as the reduction in vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease would be counterbalanced by an increase in non-PCV15 invasive pneumococcal disease. By contrast, PCV20 is projected to have a substantial impact on overall invasive pneumococcal disease due to higher invasiveness of the additional serotypes covered by PCV20 than the replacing non-vaccine serotypes. Reduced carriage protection against PCV13 serotypes with higher valency vaccines would amplify these effects. Interpretation Replacing PCV13 with PCV20 is likely to have a substantial public health benefit, but PCV15 could potentially increase the overall burden of disease. Funding UK Health Security Agency and National Institute of Health Research.