Abstract

OBJECTIVE: Neural tube defects (NTDs) are a preventable folate deficiency disorder; increasing folic acid intake through food fortification increases serum and red blood cell folate and reduces the risk of an NTD pregnancy. There is controversy over the blood folate level needed to achieve the full preventive effect because of discrepant study conclusions. METHODS: Results from two published studies were used to determine the relationship between serum folate and NTD risk which was compared with the observed result in a randomised trial of folic acid that increased serum folate from 5 ng/mL to 44 ng/mL among women who took a 4 mg daily periconceptional folic acid supplement. RESULTS: Both studies showed a proportional (logarithmic) relationship between serum folate and NTD risk without evidence of a folate threshold above which there is no further NTD risk reduction. The suggestion of a threshold is due to the incorrect interpretation of the folate-NTD risk association when plotted on arithmetic scales, which conceals the proportional relationship between the two. Also, both studies accurately estimated the observed result from the randomised trial that achieved a median serum folate level of 44 ng/mL and an 83% preventive effect. This is much higher than has been achieved with current levels of folic acid fortification with serum folate between 10 and 16 ng/mL, resulting in an approximate 20% preventive effect. CONCLUSION: To achieve fully effective fortification, median population serum folate levels need to be about 44 ng/mL, which would globally prevent about 250 000 NTD cases every year.