Alareeki, A; Awad, SF; Al-Mawali, A; Morsi, M; Critchley, JA; Al-Lawati, JA; Abu-Raddad, LJ
(2024)
Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling.
BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care, 12 (4).
e004248.
ISSN 2052-4897
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2024-004248
SGUL Authors: Critchley, Julia
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: To estimate the impact of reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity (PIA) prevalence, and of introducing physical activity (PA) as an explicit intervention, on the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Oman. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A deterministic population-level mathematical model was employed to investigate the impact of different scenarios for reducing T2DM risk factors on T2DM epidemiology. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status and parameterized with nationally representative data. Intervention scenarios were calculated and compared with a baseline (no-intervention) scenario for changes in T2DM prevalence, incidence, and mortality among adult Omanis between 2020 and 2050. RESULTS: In the no-intervention scenario, T2DM prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. Achieving the goals of halting the rise of obesity, reducing smoking by 30%, and reducing PIA by 10% as outlined in the WHO's Global Action Plan for Non-communicable Diseases (implemented between 2020 and 2030 and then maintained between 2031 and 2050) would reduce T2DM prevalence by 32.2%, cumulative incidence by 31.3%, and related deaths by 19.3% by 2050. Halting the rise of or reducing obesity prevalence by 10%-50% would reduce T2DM prevalence by 33.0%-51.3%, cumulative incidence by 31.9%-53.0%, and related deaths by 19.5%-35.6%. Reducing smoking or PIA prevalence by 10%-50% would lead to smaller reductions of less than 5% in T2DM prevalence, cumulative incidence, and related deaths. Introducing PA with varying intensities at a 25% coverage would reduce T2DM prevalence by 4.9%-14.1%, cumulative incidence by 4.8%-13.8%, and related deaths by 3.4%-9.6% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention-for-prevention efforts targeting obesity reduction and introducing PA could result in major reductions in the T2DM burden. Prioritizing such interventions could alleviate the burden of T2DM in Oman and other countries with similarly high T2DM and obesity burdens.
Item Type: |
Article
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Additional Information: |
© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/. |
Keywords: |
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Epidemiology, Obesity, Prevention, Humans, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Oman, Obesity, Male, Female, Prevalence, Sedentary Behavior, Adult, Exercise, Smoking, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Incidence, Risk Factors, Aged, Cost of Illness, Follow-Up Studies, Young Adult, Humans, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Obesity, Exercise, Incidence, Prevalence, Risk Factors, Follow-Up Studies, Smoking, Models, Theoretical, Cost of Illness, Adult, Aged, Middle Aged, Oman, Female, Male, Young Adult, Sedentary Behavior, 1103 Clinical Sciences |
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: |
Academic Structure > Population Health Research Institute (INPH) Academic Structure > REF 2021 user group |
Journal or Publication Title: |
BMJ Open Diabetes Res Care |
ISSN: |
2052-4897 |
Language: |
eng |
Dates: |
Date | Event |
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3 August 2024 | Published | 5 July 2024 | Accepted |
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Publisher License: |
Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 |
Projects: |
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PubMed ID: |
39097298 |
![](http://static.pubmed.gov/portal/portal3rc.fcgi/2745237/img/27842) |
Go to PubMed abstract |
URI: |
https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/116745 |
Publisher's version: |
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjdrc-2024-004248 |
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