COVIDSurg Collaborative
(2020)
Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans.
Br J Surg, 107 (11).
pp. 1440-1449.
ISSN 1365-2168
https://doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746
SGUL Authors: Rhodes, Andrew
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19. METHODS: A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. RESULTS: The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90·2 per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72·3 per cent. Globally, 81·7 per cent of operations for benign conditions (25 638 922 of 31 378 062), 37·7 per cent of cancer operations (2 324 070 of 6 162 311) and 25·4 per cent of elective caesarean sections (441 611 of 1 735 483) would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increased their normal surgical volume by 20 per cent after the pandemic, it would take a median of 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID-19 disruption. CONCLUSION: A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed owing to disruption caused by COVID-19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to restore surgical activity safely.
Item Type: |
Article
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Additional Information: |
This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in British Journal of Surgery following peer review. The version of record COVIDSurg Collaborative, Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans, British Journal of Surgery, Volume 107, Issue 11, October 2020, Pages 1440–1449 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746 |
Keywords: |
Adult, Bayes Theorem, COVID-19, Elective Surgical Procedures, Global Health, Health Care Rationing, Health Policy, Health Services Accessibility, Humans, Infection Control, Models, Statistical, Pandemics, COVIDSurg Collaborative, Humans, Models, Statistical, Bayes Theorem, Infection Control, Health Care Rationing, Health Policy, Adult, Health Services Accessibility, Pandemics, Global Health, Elective Surgical Procedures, COVID-19, Adult, Bayes Theorem, COVID-19, Elective Surgical Procedures, Global Health, Health Care Rationing, Health Policy, Health Services Accessibility, Humans, Infection Control, Models, Statistical, Pandemics, Surgery, 11 Medical and Health Sciences |
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: |
Academic Structure > Molecular and Clinical Sciences Research Institute (MCS) |
Journal or Publication Title: |
Br J Surg |
ISSN: |
1365-2168 |
Language: |
eng |
Dates: |
Date | Event |
---|
October 2020 | Published | 13 June 2020 | Published Online | 11 May 2020 | Accepted |
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Publisher License: |
Publisher's own licence |
Projects: |
Project ID | Funder | Funder ID |
---|
UNSPECIFIED | NIHR Academy British Gynaecological Cancer Society | UNSPECIFIED | UNSPECIFIED | Bowel Disease Research Foundation | UNSPECIFIED | UNSPECIFIED | Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland | UNSPECIFIED | UNSPECIFIED | British Association of Surgical Oncology | UNSPECIFIED | UNSPECIFIED | Sarcoma UK | UNSPECIFIED | UNSPECIFIED | European Society of Coloproctology | UNSPECIFIED | NIHR300175 | Department of Health | UNSPECIFIED | NIHR 16.136.79 | National Institute for Health Research | UNSPECIFIED | UNSPECIFIED | Bowel and Cancer Research | UNSPECIFIED | UNSPECIFIED | Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons | UNSPECIFIED | UNSPECIFIED | Yorkshire Cancer Research | UNSPECIFIED | UNSPECIFIED | Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland | UNSPECIFIED |
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PubMed ID: |
32395848 |
Web of Science ID: |
WOS:000539810900001 |
![](http://static.pubmed.gov/portal/portal3rc.fcgi/2745237/img/27842) |
Go to PubMed abstract |
URI: |
https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/114008 |
Publisher's version: |
https://doi.org/10.1002/bjs.11746 |
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