Awad, SF; O'Flaherty, M; El-Nahas, KG; Al-Hamaq, AO; Critchley, JA; Abu-Raddad, LJ
(2019)
Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.
Popul Health Metr, 17 (1).
p. 20.
ISSN 1478-7954
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-019-0200-1
SGUL Authors: Critchley, Julia
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.
Item Type: |
Article
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Additional Information: |
© The Author(s). 2019 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
Keywords: |
Mathematical modeling, Middle East and North Africa, Noncommunicable disease, Obesity, Prevention, Risk factors, type 2 diabetes mellitus, General & Internal Medicine, 1117 Public Health and Health Services |
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: |
Academic Structure > Population Health Research Institute (INPH) |
Journal or Publication Title: |
Popul Health Metr |
ISSN: |
1478-7954 |
Language: |
eng |
Dates: |
Date | Event |
---|
30 December 2019 | Published | 21 November 2019 | Accepted |
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Publisher License: |
Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 |
Projects: |
Project ID | Funder | Funder ID |
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10-1208-160017 | Qatar National Research Fund | UNSPECIFIED |
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PubMed ID: |
31888689 |
![](http://static.pubmed.gov/portal/portal3rc.fcgi/2745237/img/27842) |
Go to PubMed abstract |
URI: |
https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/111554 |
Publisher's version: |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-019-0200-1 |
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