Abstract

Introduction Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality. Dietary trans fats (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor. However, UK efforts to reduce intake have been less successful than other nations. We modelled the potential health and economic effects of eliminating industrial and all TFA up to 2020. Methods We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects on health and economic outcomes of mandatory reformulation or a complete ban on dietary TFA in England and Wales from 2011-2020. We modelled two policy scenarios: 1) elimination of industrial TFA consumption, from 0.8%-0.4% daily energy 2) elimination of all TFA consumption, from 0.8%-0% Results Elimination of industrial-TFA across the England and Wales population could result in approximately 1,600 fewer deaths per year, with some 4,000 fewer hospital admissions; gaining approximately 14,000 additional life years. Health inequalities would be substantially reduced in both scenarios. Elimination of industrial-TFA would be cost saving. This would include approximately £100m saved in direct healthcare costs. Elimination of all TFA would double the health and economic gains. Conclusions Eliminating industrial or all UK dietary intake of TFA could substantially reduce CHD mortality and inequalities, whilst resulting in substantial annual savings.