Abstract

Objective This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking, physical activity levels, dietary salt, saturated fat intake, mean body mass index (BMI) levels, diabetes prevalence and fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Turkey for year 2025. Design A CHD mortality model previously developed and validated in Turkey was extended to predict potential trends in CHD mortality from 2008 to 2025. Setting Using risk factor trends data from recent surveys as a baseline, we modelled alternative evidence-based future risk factor scenarios (modest/ideal scenarios). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties. Subject Projected populations in 2025 (aged 25–84) of 54 million in Turkey. Results Assuming lower mortality, modest policy changes in risk factors would result in ∼25 635 (range: 20 290–31 125) fewer CHD deaths in the year 2025; 35.6% attributed to reductions in salt consumption, 20.9% to falls in diabetes, 14.6% to declines in saturated fat intake and 13.6% to increase in F&V intake. In the ideal scenario, 45 950 (range: 36 780–55 450) CHD deaths could be prevented in 2025. Again, 33.2% of this would be attributed to reductions in salt reduction, 19.8% to increases in F&V intake, 16.7% to reductions in saturated fat intake and 14.0% to the fall in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions Only modest risk factor changes in salt, saturated/unsaturated fats and F&V intake could prevent around 16 000 CHD deaths in the year 2025 in Turkey, even assuming mortality continues to decline. Implementation of population-based, multisectoral interventions to reduce salt and saturated fat consumption and increase F&V consumption should be scaled up in Turkey.