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Minimising school disruption under high incidence conditions due to the Omicron variant in France, Switzerland, Italy, in January 2022.

Colosi, E; Bassignana, G; Barrat, A; Lina, B; Vanhems, P; Bielicki, J; Colizza, V (2023) Minimising school disruption under high incidence conditions due to the Omicron variant in France, Switzerland, Italy, in January 2022. Euro Surveill, 28 (5). ISSN 1560-7917 https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.5.2200192
SGUL Authors: Bielicki, Julia Anna

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Abstract

BackgroundAs record cases of Omicron variant were registered in Europe in early 2022, schools remained a vulnerable setting undergoing large disruption.AimThrough mathematical modelling, we compared school protocols of reactive screening, regular screening, and reactive class closure implemented in France, in Baselland (Switzerland), and in Italy, respectively, and assessed them in terms of case prevention, testing resource demand, and schooldays lost.MethodsWe used a stochastic agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools accounting for within- and across-class contacts from empirical contact data. We parameterised it to the Omicron BA.1 variant to reproduce the French Omicron wave in January 2022. We simulated the three protocols to assess their costs and effectiveness for varying peak incidence rates in the range experienced by European countries.ResultsWe estimated that at the high incidence rates registered in France during the Omicron BA.1 wave in January 2022, the reactive screening protocol applied in France required higher test resources compared with the weekly screening applied in Baselland (0.50 vs 0.45 tests per student-week), but achieved considerably lower control (8% vs 21% reduction of peak incidence). The reactive class closure implemented in Italy was predicted to be very costly, leading to > 20% student-days lost.ConclusionsAt high incidence conditions, reactive screening protocols generate a large and unplanned demand in testing resources, for marginal control of school transmissions. Comparable or lower resources could be more efficiently used through weekly screening. Our findings can help define incidence levels triggering school protocols and optimise their cost-effectiveness.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) Licence. You may share and adapt the material, but must give appropriate credit to the source, provide a link to the licence and indicate if changes were made. Any supplementary material referenced in the article can be found in the online version. This article is copyright of the authors or their affiliated institutions, 2023.
Keywords: COVID-19, Omicron, resources, schools, testing, vaccination, Humans, Switzerland, Incidence, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, France, Italy, Schools, Humans, Incidence, Schools, France, Italy, Switzerland, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, France, Humans, Incidence, Italy, SARS-CoV-2, Schools, Switzerland, COVID-19, Omicron, resources, schools, testing, vaccination, 0605 Microbiology, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 1199 Other Medical and Health Sciences
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: Academic Structure > Infection and Immunity Research Institute (INII)
Journal or Publication Title: Euro Surveill
ISSN: 1560-7917
Language: eng
Dates:
DateEvent
2 February 2023Published
21 November 2022Accepted
Publisher License: Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
PubMed ID: 36729116
Go to PubMed abstract
URI: https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/115176
Publisher's version: https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.5.2200192

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