Abstract

The trajectories of physical activity (PA) from midlife into old age and their associations with established and novel cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors in later life remain unclear. This study examined associations between 20-year non-occupational PA trajectories and a range of CVD biomarkers at 60-79 years. 3,331 men (mean baseline age = 50.2 ± 5.8 years) recruited in 1978-80 were followed up after 12, 16 and 20 years, reporting habitual non-occupational PA at each wave. At the 20-year follow up, surviving men attended a physical examination and provided a fasting blood sample. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify trajectories. Adjusted regression analyses examined the association between trajectory group membership and several cardiometabolic, cardiac and inflammatory markers at follow up. Three distinct 20-year trajectories were identified: low decreasing (21.3%), light stable (51.8%) and moderate increasing (27.0%). Compared to the low decreasing group, membership of the light stable and moderate increasing trajectory groups was associated with a more favorable cardiometabolic profile, lower levels of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction. Although following a moderate increasing PA trajectory was most favorable, more modest but sustained doses of PA into old age may be sufficient to lower CVD risk.