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Potential benefits of healthy food and lifestyle policies for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Turkish adults by 2025: a modelling study

Critchley, J; Sahan, C; Sözmen, K; Unal, B; O'Flaherty, M (2016) Potential benefits of healthy food and lifestyle policies for reducing coronary heart disease mortality in Turkish adults by 2025: a modelling study. BMJ Open, 6. ISSN 2044-6055 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011217
SGUL Authors: Critchley, Julia

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Abstract

Objective This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking, physical activity levels, dietary salt, saturated fat intake, mean body mass index (BMI) levels, diabetes prevalence and fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in Turkey for year 2025. Design A CHD mortality model previously developed and validated in Turkey was extended to predict potential trends in CHD mortality from 2008 to 2025. Setting Using risk factor trends data from recent surveys as a baseline, we modelled alternative evidence-based future risk factor scenarios (modest/ideal scenarios). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties. Subject Projected populations in 2025 (aged 25–84) of 54 million in Turkey. Results Assuming lower mortality, modest policy changes in risk factors would result in ∼25 635 (range: 20 290–31 125) fewer CHD deaths in the year 2025; 35.6% attributed to reductions in salt consumption, 20.9% to falls in diabetes, 14.6% to declines in saturated fat intake and 13.6% to increase in F&V intake. In the ideal scenario, 45 950 (range: 36 780–55 450) CHD deaths could be prevented in 2025. Again, 33.2% of this would be attributed to reductions in salt reduction, 19.8% to increases in F&V intake, 16.7% to reductions in saturated fat intake and 14.0% to the fall in diabetes prevalence. Conclusions Only modest risk factor changes in salt, saturated/unsaturated fats and F&V intake could prevent around 16 000 CHD deaths in the year 2025 in Turkey, even assuming mortality continues to decline. Implementation of population-based, multisectoral interventions to reduce salt and saturated fat consumption and increase F&V consumption should be scaled up in Turkey.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: Academic Structure > Population Health Research Institute (INPH)
Journal or Publication Title: BMJ Open
Article Number: e011217
ISSN: 2044-6055
Dates:
DateEvent
9 June 2016Accepted
7 July 2016Published
Publisher License: Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Projects:
Project IDFunderFunder ID
281640Seventh Framework Programmehttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004963
URI: https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/108072
Publisher's version: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011217

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