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Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020.

Achilleos, S; Quattrocchi, A; Gabel, J; Heraclides, A; Kolokotroni, O; Constantinou, C; Pagola Ugarte, M; Nicolaou, N; Rodriguez-Llanes, JM; Bennett, CM; et al. Achilleos, S; Quattrocchi, A; Gabel, J; Heraclides, A; Kolokotroni, O; Constantinou, C; Pagola Ugarte, M; Nicolaou, N; Rodriguez-Llanes, JM; Bennett, CM; Bogatyreva, E; Schernhammer, E; Zimmermann, C; Costa, AJL; Lobato, JCP; Fernandes, NM; Semedo-Aguiar, AP; Jaramillo Ramirez, GI; Martin Garzon, OD; Mortensen, LH; Critchley, JA; Goldsmith, LP; Denissov, G; Rüütel, K; Le Meur, N; Kandelaki, L; Tsiklauri, S; O'Donnell, J; Oza, A; Kaufman, Z; Zucker, I; Ambrosio, G; Stracci, F; Hagen, TP; Erzen, I; Klepac, P; Arcos González, P; Fernández Camporro, Á; Burström, B; Pidmurniak, N; Verstiuk, O; Huang, Q; Mehta, NK; Polemitis, A; Charalambous, A; Demetriou, CA (2022) Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020. Int J Epidemiol, 51 (1). pp. 35-53. ISSN 1464-3685 https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab123
SGUL Authors: Critchley, Julia

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced version of an article accepted for publication in International Journal of Epidemiology following peer review. The version of record Souzana Achilleos, Annalisa Quattrocchi, John Gabel, Alexandros Heraclides, Ourania Kolokotroni, Constantina Constantinou, Maider Pagola Ugarte, Nicoletta Nicolaou, Jose Manuel Rodriguez-Llanes, Catherine Marie Bennett, Ekaterina Bogatyreva, Eva Schernhammer, Claudia Zimmermann, Antonio Jose Leal Costa, Jackeline Christiane Pinto Lobato, Ngibo Mubeta Fernandes, Ana Paula Semedo-Aguiar, Gloria Isabel Jaramillo Ramirez, Oscar Dario Martin Garzon, Laust Hvas Mortensen, Julia A Critchley, Lucy P Goldsmith, Gleb Denissov, Kristi Rüütel, Nolwenn Le Meur, Levan Kandelaki, Shorena Tsiklauri, Joan O’Donnell, Ajay Oza, Zalman Kaufman, Inbar Zucker, Giuseppe Ambrosio, Fabrizio Stracci, Terje P Hagen, Ivan Erzen, Petra Klepac, Pedro Arcos González, Ángel Fernández Camporro, Bo Burström, Nataliia Pidmurniak, Olesia Verstiuk, Qian Huang, Neil Kishor Mehta, Antonis Polemitis, Andreas Charalambous, Christiana A Demetriou, on behalf of the C-MOR consortium, Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020, International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 51, Issue 1, February 2022, Pages 35–53 is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab123
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, infection control, mortality, pandemic, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, infection control, mortality, pandemic, 0104 Statistics, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, Epidemiology
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: Academic Structure > Population Health Research Institute (INPH)
Journal or Publication Title: Int J Epidemiol
ISSN: 1464-3685
Language: eng
Dates:
DateEvent
February 2022Published
20 July 2021Published Online
25 May 2021Accepted
Publisher License: Publisher's own licence
Projects:
Project IDFunderFunder ID
UNSPECIFIEDUniversity of Nicosia Medical SchoolUNSPECIFIED
PubMed ID: 34282450
Go to PubMed abstract
URI: https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/113470
Publisher's version: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab123

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