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Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain.

Chis Ster, I; Ferguson, NM (2007) Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. PLoS One, 2 (6). e502. ISSN 1932-6203 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0000502
SGUL Authors: Chis Ster, Delizia Irina

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Abstract

Despite intensive ongoing research, key aspects of the spatial-temporal evolution of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Great Britain (GB) remain unexplained. Here we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for estimating epidemiological parameters of the 2001 outbreak for a range of simple transmission models. We make the simplifying assumption that infectious farms were completely observed in 2001, equivalent to assuming that farms that were proactively culled but not diagnosed with FMD were not infectious, even if some were infected. We estimate how transmission parameters varied through time, highlighting the impact of the control measures on the progression of the epidemic. We demonstrate statistically significant evidence for assortative contact patterns between animals of the same species. Predictive risk maps of the transmission potential in different geographic areas of GB are presented for the fitted models.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright: © 2007 Chis Ster, Ferguson. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: Animals, Cattle, Computer Simulation, Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Incidence, Models, Biological, Monte Carlo Method, Sheep, United Kingdom, Animals, Cattle, Sheep, Foot-and-Mouth Disease, Incidence, Monte Carlo Method, Models, Biological, Computer Simulation, United Kingdom, MD Multidisciplinary, General Science & Technology
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: Academic Structure > Infection and Immunity Research Institute (INII)
Journal or Publication Title: PLoS One
ISSN: 1932-6203
Language: eng
Dates:
DateEvent
6 June 2007Published
16 May 2007Accepted
Publisher License: Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Projects:
Project IDFunderFunder ID
UNSPECIFIEDDepartment of Environmental and Rural AffairsUNSPECIFIED
UNSPECIFIEDBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000268
PubMed ID: 17551582
Web of Science ID: WOS:000207451500011
Go to PubMed abstract
URI: https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/111745
Publisher's version: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0000502

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