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Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1.

Fitzgerald, F; Wing, K; Naveed, A; Gbessay, M; Ross, JCG; Checchi, F; Youkee, D; Jalloh, MB; Baion, DE; Mustapha, A; et al. Fitzgerald, F; Wing, K; Naveed, A; Gbessay, M; Ross, JCG; Checchi, F; Youkee, D; Jalloh, MB; Baion, DE; Mustapha, A; Jah, H; Lako, S; Oza, S; Boufkhed, S; Feury, R; Bielicki, J; Williamson, E; Gibb, DM; Klein, N; Sahr, F; Yeung, S (2018) Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1. Emerg Infect Dis, 24 (2). pp. 311-319. ISSN 1080-6059 https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018
SGUL Authors: Bielicki, Julia Anna

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Abstract

We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Fitzgerald F, Wing K, Naveed A, Gbessay M, Ross J, Checchi F, et al. Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone. Emerg Infect Dis. 2018;24(2):311-319. https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018 Copyright and usage information: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/page/copyright-and-disclaimers
Keywords: Ebola virus, Ebola virus disease, Sierra Leone, case definition, child mortality, children, pediatrics, prediction, viral hemorrhagic fever, viruses, Microbiology, 1108 Medical Microbiology, 1117 Public Health And Health Services, 1103 Clinical Sciences
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: Academic Structure > Infection and Immunity Research Institute (INII)
Journal or Publication Title: Emerg Infect Dis
ISSN: 1080-6059
Language: eng
Dates:
DateEvent
February 2018Published
Projects:
Project IDFunderFunder ID
UNSPECIFIEDWellcome Trusthttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100004440
MR/K023535/1Medical Research Councilhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
PubMed ID: 29350145
Go to PubMed abstract
URI: https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/109883
Publisher's version: https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018

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