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Forecasting the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar to 2050: A novel modeling approach.

Awad, SF; O'Flaherty, M; Critchley, J; Abu-Raddad, LJ (2018) Forecasting the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar to 2050: A novel modeling approach. Diabetes Res Clin Pract, 137. pp. 100-108. ISSN 1872-8227 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2017.11.015
SGUL Authors: Critchley, Julia

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Abstract

AIMS: We developed and demonstrated a novel mathematical modeling approach to forecast the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to investigate T2DM epidemiology for the purpose of informing public health policy and programming. METHODS: A population-level compartmental mathematical model was constructed and applied to Qatar. The model was stratified according to sex, age group, risk factor status, and T2DM status, and was parameterized by nationally-representative data. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2012 to at least 24.0% by 2050. The rise in T2DM was most prominent among 45-54 years old. T2DM health expenditure was estimated to increase by 200-600% and to account for up to 32% of total health expenditure by 2050. Prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity was predicted to increase from 41.4% to 51.0%, from 16.4% to 19.4%, and from 45.9% to 53.0%, respectively. The proportion of T2DM incidence attributed to obesity, smoking and physical inactivity was estimated at 57.5%, 1.8%, and 5.4%, respectively in 2012, and 65.7%, 2.1%, and 6.0%, respectively in 2050. Exploring different scenarios for the trends in risk factors, T2DM prevalence reached up to 37.7% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Using our innovative approach, a rising T2DM epidemic is predicted to continue in the next decades, driven by population growth, ageing and adverse trends in risk factors. Obesity was the principal risk factor explaining two-thirds of T2DM incidence. T2DM must be a national priority addressed by preventive and therapeutic interventions targeting T2DM and its modifiable risk factors.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Keywords: Mathematical modeling, Middle East and North Africa, Obesity, Qatar, Risk factors, Mathematical modeling, Obesity, Qatar, Risk factors, Type 2 diabetes mellitus, 1103 Clinical Sciences
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: Academic Structure > Population Health Research Institute (INPH)
Journal or Publication Title: Diabetes Res Clin Pract
ISSN: 1872-8227
Language: eng
Dates:
DateEvent
March 2018Published
21 November 2017Published Online
10 November 2017Accepted
Publisher License: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0
Projects:
Project IDFunderFunder ID
7-627-3-167Qatar Foundationhttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100007458
PubMed ID: 29175341
Go to PubMed abstract
URI: https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/109379
Publisher's version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.diabres.2017.11.015

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