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Changes in Dietary Fat Intake and Projections for Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Sweden: A Simulation Study.

Björck, L; Rosengren, A; Winkvist, A; Capewell, S; Adiels, M; Bandosz, P; Critchley, J; Boman, K; Guzman-Castillo, M; O'Flaherty, M; et al. Björck, L; Rosengren, A; Winkvist, A; Capewell, S; Adiels, M; Bandosz, P; Critchley, J; Boman, K; Guzman-Castillo, M; O'Flaherty, M; Johansson, I (2016) Changes in Dietary Fat Intake and Projections for Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in Sweden: A Simulation Study. PLoS One, 11 (8). ISSN 1932-6203 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0160474
SGUL Authors: Critchley, Julia

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: In Sweden, previous favourable trends in blood cholesterol levels have recently levelled off or even increased in some age groups since 2003, potentially reflecting changing fashions and attitudes towards dietary saturated fatty acids (SFA). We aimed to examine the potential effect of different SFA intake on future coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in 2025. METHODS: We compared the effect on future CHD mortality of two different scenarios for fat intake a) daily SFA intake decreasing to 10 energy percent (E%), and b) daily SFA intake rising to 20 E%. We assumed that there would be moderate improvements in smoking (5%), salt intake (1g/day) and physical inactivity (5% decrease) to continue recent, positive trends. RESULTS: In the baseline scenario which assumed that recent mortality declines continue, approximately 5,975 CHD deaths might occur in year 2025. Anticipated improvements in smoking, dietary salt intake and physical activity, would result in some 380 (-6.4%) fewer deaths (235 in men and 145 in women). In combination with a mean SFA daily intake of 10 E%, a total of 810 (-14%) fewer deaths would occur in 2025 (535 in men and 275 in women). If the overall consumption of SFA rose to 20 E%, the expected mortality decline would be wiped out and approximately 20 (0.3%) additional deaths might occur. CONCLUSION: CHD mortality may increase as a result of unfavourable trends in diets rich in saturated fats resulting in increases in blood cholesterol levels. These could cancel out the favourable trends in salt intake, smoking and physical activity.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2016 Björck et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Keywords: General Science & Technology, MD Multidisciplinary
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: Academic Structure > Population Health Research Institute (INPH)
Journal or Publication Title: PLoS One
Article Number: e0160474
ISSN: 1932-6203
Language: eng
Dates:
DateEvent
4 August 2016Published
20 July 2016Accepted
Publisher License: Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0
Projects:
Project IDFunderFunder ID
2013-5187Swedish Research Council Formashttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001862
2013-4236Swedish Research Council Formashttp://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001862
PubMed ID: 27490257
Go to PubMed abstract
URI: https://openaccess.sgul.ac.uk/id/eprint/108275
Publisher's version: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0160474

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