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Impact of smoking reduction on coronary heart disease mortality trends during 1981-2000 in England and Wales.

Unal, B; Critchley, J; Capewell, S (2003) Impact of smoking reduction on coronary heart disease mortality trends during 1981-2000 in England and Wales. Tobacco Induced Diseases, 1 (3). 185 -196. ISSN 1617-9625
SGUL Authors: Critchley, Julia

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OBJECTIVE: To explore how much of the coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality fall in England and Wales can be attributed to changes in smoking prevalence. METHODS: A previously validated cell-based IMPACT CHD mortality model was used to estimate the deaths prevented or postponed by changes in population smoking prevalence in England and Wales between 1981 and 2000. CHD mortality statistics and population trends in smoking were obtained from routine data sources. RESULTS: In England and Wales between 1981 and 2000, smoking prevalence in adults aged 25-84 decreased from 43% to 28% in men and from 35% to 24% in women. In men, most of the decrease occurred in those aged over 55. Smoking prevalence changed little in older women. An estimated 29,460 deaths were prevented or postponed (DPP) by this population reduction in smoking prevalence. Most of this benefit was seen in men (86% of the DPPs versus 14% in women). CONCLUSION: Large declines in smoking prevalence accounted for 29,460 fewer CHD deaths in England and Wales in 2000 compared with 1981. This emphasises the importance of a national strategy with comprehensive tobacco control programmes to further reduce smoking.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: PMCID: PMC2671547 © 2003 Unal et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: Academic Structure > Population Health Research Institute (INPH)
Journal or Publication Title: Tobacco Induced Diseases
ISSN: 1617-9625
15 September 2003Published
PubMed ID: 19570259
Web of Science ID: 19570259
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